The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved again in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100, previous month reading = a downwardly revised 99.2). The index growth has been noisy but remains in a growth trend.
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This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The market expected growth of -0.2% to 0.5% (consensus 0.2%) in the LEI (versus the 0.3% reported).
Both the LEI and ECRI’s WLI are forecasting growth for the next six months.
Additional comments from the economists at The Conference Board add context to the index’s behavior.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.9 percent increase in November.
“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to fluctuate on a monthly basis, but the six-month average growth rate has been relatively stable in recent months, which suggests that the economy will remain resilient in the first half of 2014 and underlying economic conditions should continue to improve,†said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Correspondingly, the U.S. Coincident Economic Index, which measures current conditions, has continued rising steadily.â€
“The increase in the Leading Economic Index reflects an economy that is expanding moderately, although the pace is somewhat held back by persistent and severe inclement weather in most parts of the country,†said Economist Ken Goldstein. “If the economy is going to move on to a faster track in 2014 compared to last year, consumer demand and especially investment will need to pick up significantly from their current trends.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 108.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in December, and a 0.4 percent increase in November.
The LEI which shows the index at levels below the pre-2007 recession – as well as showing some turbulence in the indicator’s post recession climb:
