If the question seems silly, it’s because it is silly. Yet, here’s a headline to discuss: “Crucial Crypto Market Prediction Issued by Raoul Pal“
Crucial Crypto Market PredictionPlease consider emphasis mine.
Legendary investor and market expert Raoul Pal has waded into the incessant predictions going on in the digital currency ecosystem, labeling most long-term projections as unlikely to see the light of day.
Enormous IronyRaoul Pal did not use the word “crucial”.However, the enormous irony is Raoul Pal makes his own long-term prediction that predicting “forecasting will go out the window” by 2030.
I think it becomes near impossible to forecast economies, society and markets beyond 2030 as we hit the exponential on everything and everything changes forever in ways we can’t yet grasp.
I am an optimist in this, even though it feels scary. Opportunities abound.
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) December 10, 2023
Forecast of the Day
Forecast Highly Unlikely to See Light of DayThere is no such thing as a “crucial prediction“.The idea is ridiculous. So is the forecast “All forecasting will go out the window by 2030.”Hoot of the Day IronyIf you are looking for a forecast highly unlikely to see the light of day, look no further than Raoul’s forecast that crypto is in an “All at once adoption cycle” making forecasting “near impossible”.Looking AheadI do not think the existing central bank setup based on US dollar dominance can last. But no one has any idea, especially Bitcoin advocates, about the replacement.I am reluctant to say never, but that is roughly what I think about a mass adoption of Bitcoin by governments, ever.No Mass Adoption of BitcoinThere will not be mass adoption of Bitcoin for three easy to explain reasons.
Even if the third condition were to vanish by some miracle, points one and two won’t.And it won’t be the yuan or a BRICS-backed replacement either. If you disagree, then dispute three articles I have written on the subject.BRICS Success? When?July 7, 2023: August 24, 2023: August 25, 2023: BRICS hype has lasted for a decade. Expect it to continue despite the fact that it fails six of six necessary conditions.When Does US Federal Debt Reach an Unsustainable Level?
However, enormous problems remain and the current path is not sustainable.An interesting article by Penn Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, says the limit of debt as a percentage of GDP is about 200 percent, When does that happen?For discussion, please see We are on an unsustainable path. I hope we can all agree on that.But predicting when this all blows up, and how, is a fool’s mission. Regardless, we can say Bitcoin is not the logical answer for the three reasons I listed above.More By This Author:
