EUR/CHF is located at the 1.0899 level at the time of writing versus 1.0887, which denotes today’s low. The pair is struggling to recover after the last downside movement. EUR/CHF has reached a strong support area, so we cannot exclude potential growth in the short term.
Also, the pair has moved higher since yesterday because eurozone Industrial Production registered a 0.8% growth versus 0.4% expected. Today, the German Final CPI increased by 0.5% as expected.
Still, EUR/CHF is under massive pressure despite the current throwback. It remains to be seen how this pair will react when the Swiss National Bank publishes its SNB Policy Rate on Thursday. The SNB Press Conference and the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment could have a high impact on this pair.
Also, the eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI and the Switzerland Trade Balance data could bring lively price action on EUR/CHF on Thursday, trigger trading signals.
EUR/CHF down channel still intact
EUR/CHF dropped from the down channel pattern signalling strong selling. Still, if the breakdown is invalidated, the pair could try to develop a swing higher. Technically, the price has found support on the 1.0871 level – the former resistance has turned into support.
Now EUR/CHF is trading back above the channel’s downside line and above the 61.8% retracement level, 1.0896. Stabilizing above these downside obstacles could signal that EUR/CHF could start developing a swing higher.
On the other hand, dropping again under these levels and making a new lower low, to close below 1.0869 yesterday’s low could really announce a broader drop in the upcoming period. The 1.0971 and 1.0892 is seen as a major support area.
Dropping and stabilizing under this zone validates more drops ahead, while staying above it could indicate an upwards movement towards the down channel’s upside line.
EUR/CHF: Credit Suisse sees more downside ahead if 200MA fails
Credit Suisse analysts sees the possibility of EUR/CHF falling further if the 200-day moving average fails to provide support at this juncture. “EUR/CHF is stabilizing above the 200-day average at 1.0876/68 in the short term, however a break below here in due course would open up the ‘measured pattern objective’ at 1.0829/27, where we expect the market to find a floor.”
Looking to the prospects for bulls, resistance will come into play at 1.0925: “The risks stay lower whilst below 1.0925/35 and next resistance at 1.0951. Above here would negate the new bearish pattern, with resistance thereafter seen at the 55-day average at 1.0991/98, above which would open up downtrend resistance at 1.1029/31. We expect this zone to cap if reached to keep the market in its 3-month downtrend.”
The euro is getting support from the reopening of the continent’s economy, but much depends on the continuing rebound of the export-driven German economy and the speed of the recovery in the global economy.
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