Some really encouraging things…
I’ve been saying now that current operating assets and those currently under construction are going to produce a ~$200M NOI (up from the current $74M) run rate by the end of 2016-17. Today the company confirmed that in its annual letter (please read it):
Now it is critically important to recognize that this $200M number EXCLUDES NOI from the South Street Seaport scheduled to open in the fall of 2016 (more on this later). Even if we exclude the contested tower and just take the 368k sqft at the Pier 17 retail shops that are currently under construction, we can add another $35M  NOI using some very conservative assumptions for rent and cap rates.  If you want to assume more real world assumptions for rent ~$400-$500 sqft things start getting interesting to the upside.
Now, as for the “more on this later†part, the above numbers exclude not only the Pier 17 retail operations but also :
Seaport District Assemblage (New York, New York)
The Seaport District Assemblage is comprised of a 48,000 square foot commercial building on a 15,744 square foot lot with certain air rights with total residential and commercial development rights of 621,651 square feet. As of December 31, 2014, we were under contract to purchase another 58,000 square foot commercial building and air rights attributable to three additional parcels during the first half of 2015, that will ultimately create a 42,694 square foot lot entitled for 817,784 square feet of mixed use development. These properties are collectively referred to as the Seaport District Assemblage and are located in close proximity to our South Street Seaport property.
So, you have an NOI estimate above that is over 2X the current one and that numbers excludes the effect of well over 1MM sqft of NYC waterfront real estate that already has development rights. The point here is Pier 17 is just the start of what is happening in NYC for the company and none of the current numbers or estimates are reflecting that fact.
