Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and St. Louis Fed are for 2.1%, 2.51%, and 1.9%, SAAR respectively.
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow of 11/8 (blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 11/10 (green inverted triangle), St. Louis Fed news nowcast (brown triangle), WSJ survey mean (bold dark red), 20% trimmed low of WSJ survey fm Jonathan Holt/ScotiaBank (light red), all in billions Ch.2017$, SAAR. Levels calculated on basis on advance GDP release figure. Note on log scale. Source: BEA 2023Q3 advance, , , , WSJ, and author’s calculations. The latest weekly reading (for y/y growth) as of data from 11/4 are 2.07% (from the ), and -0.02% below trend from the . That means we’re essentially at trend growth according to the BLLS indicator.These figures are interesting placed in the context of term spread recession probabilities exceeding , and term spread augmented (FCI, debt-service ratio) probabilities breaking that threshold in April 2024. So just because we haven’t seen sharp growth declines yet doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet.More By This Author:EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Forecast For Oil, And The Impact Of Sanctions Alternative Estimates Of Chinese Q3 GDP GrowthEuro Area Treading Water
Growth Nowcasts For Q4
