Greece’s finance minister said that the probability of a bank run is small and deposits are safe. Gikas Hardouvelis did acknowledge that there is mounting evidence that some rich people were transferring money abroad, and we already know that there was a leap in outflows during December.
At this neck of the woods, we believe that a bank run is quite unlikely and that the EU could also make another airlift operation, as it did in 2012. However, as tension grows towards the January 25th elections, the mere move to deny the chances of a bank run could actually do more harm that help.
The recent opinion polls show a small gap for opposition SYRIZA against incumbent New Democracy. MRB shows a lead of 33.7% against 30.1%, Metron Analysis shows 34.1% against 30% and Metrisi shows 34.4% against 31.6%.
It is important to note that the winner receives an additional 50 seats out of the 300 seat parliament, so the identity of the winning party is critical.
SYRIZA, led by young and charismatic Alexis Tsipras, vowed to end austerity and renegotiate the debt. Even if he wins, there is a gap between the elections promises from his side. There is also a gap between the scaremongering from outside and reality.
There is a better chance that the new Greek government and its creditors will find a middle ground. At the moment, the elections results are unknown and everything is open.
One thing is certain: volatility will undoubtedly be with us at least until January 25th.
More: 4 reasons why EUR downside could accelerate because of Greece in early January – Nomura
