WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher again yesterday on the less than expected Wheat production estimates from USDA seen on Mondy. The Winter Wheat estimates for Hard Red and Soft White production were especially down. World prices were higher amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher even as production estimates remain lower and one region declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 604, 617, and 633 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 602, 595, and 580 December, and resistance is at 638, 646, and 652 December.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed in quiet trading. Many decided not to do anything in response to the US dock workers strike and the threat of war between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. It appears that producers were not rally offering into the market and the funds became buyers after support held on the daily charts. A hurricane came late in the week in the southern US and hit rice areas in the northern Delta with a lot of wind and rain. There was concern to damage to unharvested crops in the region. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1479, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1557, 1562, and 1575 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher, with Corn higher on follow through buying from the USDA quarterly stocks report that showed less than expected stocks in all positions. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is under way. Yield reports heard so far show strong but not spectacular production potential for the national crop. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 415, 409, and 401 December, and resistance is at 433, 441, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 380, 374, and 357 December, and resistance is at 404, 410, and 416 December
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday in sympathy with the rallies in grains and despite China being closed for the week due to a holiday and the port strike in the US interrupting shipments from the East Coast and Gulf Coast. The USDA reports for Soybeans were about as expected by the trade and offered no reason to add to longs. Soybean Oil closed higher. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods although there have been spotty showers more recently. Dry weather is expected to return this week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. There are some forecasts for showers to return to central and northern areas in a couple of weeks. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but the country will be on holiday this week so no new demand is expected.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1031, 1018, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1087, 1097, and 1114 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 339.00, 333.00, and 329.00 December, and resistance is at 355.00, 361.00, and 364.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4480, 4520, and 4690 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of increasing demand for export. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil. Canola was higher yesterday along with Chicago. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 588.00, 572.00, and 565.00 November, with resistance at 619.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 3990, 3950, and 3920 December, with resistance at 4080, 4200, and 4260 December.Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.More By This Author:Softs Report – Tuesday, Oct. 1Grains Report – Monday, Sept. 30Softs Report – Friday, Sept. 27
Grains Report – Wednesday, Oct. 2
