German headline CPI rises to 1.3%, below 1.4% expected. Month over month, it dropped 0.2%.  Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices rises from 0.9% to 1.1%, below 1.3% expected. M/m prices dropped 0.3%. Headline CPI was expected to rise to 1.4% in April from 1% in March. On a monthly basis, prices were expected to drop by 0.1% after a rise of 0.3% beforehand. The HICP was also expected to drop by 0.1% on a monthly basis and advance to 1.3% from 0.9% last time. The German preliminary inflation carry a significant weight in tomorrow’s critical euro-zone inflation numbers. The bigger miss is the HICP figures. The ECB expected a stronger rise due to the shift in the date of the Easter holiday. That theory helped only a little.
EUR/USD was trading around 1.3860 towards the release, experiencing low volatility. EUR/USD falls below 1.3840.
The disappointment in German inflation comes despite OK state data, and is stronger in the wider HICP. EZ CPI tomorrow set to disappoint.
Tomorrow’s CPI may still come out above 0.5% in March, but Core CPI could fall to a new record low.
The drop of EUR/USD is within the very tight range:
Earlier, the Econoimc Sentiment Indicator for April disappointed with a drop to 102 points. Consumer confidence advanced to -8.6 points, industrial confidence fell to -3.6 and the services sentiment dropped to 3.5 points. The GfK consumer confidence for Germany remained unchanged at 8.5 points.
What might be worrying for the euro-zone is the squeeze in M3 Money Supply, which dropped from 1.3% to 1.1%, falling short of expectations.
Euro-zone headline inflation stood on 0.5% in March. Core inflation dropped to 0.7%. The ECB is expecting a higher year over year number in April due to the shift in the dates of Easter.
critical euro-zone inflation numbers.
