The discussion about Greece and its future in the monetary union, or like Greenspan opined, the lack thereof, has focused on economic issues to the near-exclusion of all else.  This is myopic. There are important geostrategic interests at stake.
Historians continue to debate who lost Yalta, the territorial settlement at the end of WWII that recognized a Soviet sphere of influence in eastern and central Europe.   Will they one day debate who lost Greece?
Greece is an important NATO member. If it is forced out of the monetary union, and by extension the EU, it would increase the risks it leaves NATO.   Could this turn into Europe’s Cuba?
Syriza has hinted at leaving NATO from time to time. Its delegates vote sympathetically to Russia in the European Parliament.  While the Defense Minister Kammenos plays emphasizes its NATO commitments, the Deputy Defense Minister Isichos is more enigmatic, saying that leaving NATO, not among Greece’s first priorities.
The context of this is very significant.  First, although the EU has moved to qualified majority voting on some issues, sanctions against Russia require unanimity. Second, the confrontation over east Ukraine has escalated. The increased hostilities have spurred calls from some in the US Congress to send weapons to Ukraine. European officials are largely opposed, but the US pressure appears to be forcing a solution be found. No doubt this will be an issue that Obama and Merkel discuss today. On Wednesday Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine are set to meet in Minsk to see if a settlement can be found.
Germany and France reportedly are prepared to endorse a 50-70 kilometer demilitarized zone and greater autonomy for east Ukraine. Russia reportedly is demanding a new federal constitution that concedes broad powers to the Russian-backed rebels. Russia already occupies part of Georgia and supports an “autonomous” region in Moldova.Â
