The UK Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. It provides a snapshot of the UK employment situation and could affect the direction of GDP/USD. Â
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD
To be published on Wednesday (Feb. 15th) at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
UK Claimant Count Change is closely monitored, as the indicator is one of the most important economic indicators. A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
The indicator sparkled in December, as jobless rolls dropped by 10.3 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of a gain of 4.6 thousand. The January estimate stands at +1.1 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The markets will be attentive to Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday. If she reiterates that the Fed plans several rate hikes in 2017, the greenback could move higher. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2540, 1.2433, 1.2311, 1.2201 and 1.2080
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -0.2K to +4.0K: In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight movement, but it is likely to remain within range, not breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: -3.0K to -0.3K: A strong reading would be a sign of economic growth and could send the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Below -3.0.0K: In this scenario, the pair could break above two resistance lines.
- Below expectations: +4.1K to +8.0K: A weak reading could push the GBP/USD downward, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Above +8.0K: A significant rise in jobless claims could result in GBP/USD dropping below two support levels.
For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD.
