GBP/USD Forecast June 12-16

GBP/USD posted considerable losses, dropping 130 points. The pair closed at 1.2736. There are ten events this week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.  

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. CPI: Tuesday, 4:30. CPI continues to move higher, and reached 2.7%. Another gain of 2.7% is expected in May.
  2. PPI Input: Tuesday, 4:30. The indicator  dipped to 0.1%, matching the forecast. The markets for braced for a decline of 0.4% in May.
  3. RPI: Tuesday, 4:30. RPI continues to climb, and reached 3.5%, edging above the estimate of 3.4%. The estimate for May stands at 3.5%.
  4. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 4:30. Wage growth grew by 2.4%, matching the forecast. Another gain of 2.4% is expected in the April release.
  5. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 4:30. This key indicator dropped to 19.4 thousand, below the estimate of 23.4 thousand. The estimate for the May report is 20.3 thousand.
  6. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 9:30. This minor event came in at -0.2% in April, its first decline since June 2016.
  7. Retail Sales: Thursday, 4:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator rebounded with a strong gain of 2.3$, beating the estimate of 1.2%. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.9%.
  8. Official Bank Rate: Thursday, 7:00. The BoE is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 0.50%.
  9. Asset Purchase Facility: Thursday, 7:00. No change is expected in the asset-purchase scheme, which is currently at 435 billion pounds.
  10. BoE Quarterly Bulletin: Friday, 7:00. This report provides details on market developments and the the Bank’s monetary operations. It is a minor event.

*All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.2867 and touched a high of 1.2978 late in the week. The pair then dropped sharply, dropping to a low of 1.2634, as support held at 1.2616 (discussed last week). GBP/USD recovered slightly and closed the week at 1.2736.

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