FX COT Update: AUD Bulls Continue To Buy

This data references the period ending Tuesday, November 1st.

EURUSD

Non-Commercials increased their net short positions in the Euro last week selling a further 14k contracts to take the total position to -137k contracts. Selling pressure has intensified in the Euro over the last month as traders continue to expect the ECB to announce an extension of QE at their upcoming December meeting. The Euro was extremely volatile last week in response to the US election outcome where initial gains were quickly reversed.  The Euro fell to its lowest level since October 25th as risk markets rebounded in response to the election result, seeing both equities and the US Dollar trading back up to pre-result highs.

Markets seem to be responding positively to an apparent moderation of Trump’s attitude which as seen a notable absence of his usual controversial remarks.  Traders this week will be paying close attention to both EuroZone and US CPI figure. With risk sentiment has responded robustly to the election, a solid US CPI number will be a strong signal for markets that a December hike is still on the table.

GBPUSD

Non-Commercials continued to reduce their net short positions in Sterling last week buying 1k contracts to take the total position to -83k contracts. Sterling shorts have been consistently squared over the last month as a lack of catalysts for fresh downside has seen non-commercials pulling back from extreme levels.

Markets remain optimistic about the chances of avoiding a hard Brexit in the light of a parliamentary vote being required for the official triggering of Article 50.  GBP was the top performer against the US Dollar last week responding positively to reports that Trump has said Britain will be at the front of the queue for a trade deal. Data wise this week traders will be watching earnings and employment data looking for continued positive momentum there which should provide a further boost for the currency.

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