The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.
Big Picture September 24
Last week, I saw the best possible trade for the coming week as long of the Euro and the British Pound, and short of the U.S. Dollar. The result was negative, as although the EUR/USD rose by 0.06%, the GBP/USD fell by 0.68%, producing an overall average loss of 0.31%.
The Forex market over the past week has been indecisive, with mixed performances that do not make clear, obvious sense. The news has been dominated by the FOMC’s relatively neutral release last week, and further Korean tensions arising towards the end of the week. British Prime Minister May’s speech at the end of the week proposing a 2-year transition period after Brexit in 2019 has left some major questions still unanswered and failed to boost the Pound significantly so far as there is still a lot of political uncertainty as to which direction any eventual deal might take.
The news agenda this week will probably be dominated by key U.S. GDP and unemployment data on Thursday, as well as any further developments which may arise concerning Korea. Germany has a general election today which is very unlikely to produce any change. A shock result would create some turbulence in the Euro.
Following the current picture, I see the highest probability trade this week as long of the British Pound, and short of the U.S. Dollar. The British Pound is in a long-term bullish trend against the U.S. Dollar.
