DOW + 6 = 17, 678
SPX + 5 = 2057
NAS + 13 = 4771
10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.83%
OIL – .49 = 45.10
GOLD – 12.80 = 1282.30
SILV – .39 = 18.01
It’s snowing in New York; this is a really, really big blizzard and it could dump up to 3 feet of snow across the northeast, with winds up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has already caused more than 1,800 flight cancellations, roads are closed in New York City except for emergency vehicles, rail traffic is also shut down, and schools are closed, and expect power outages across the Northeast. The Super Bowl will be this weekend in Glendale, and temperatures are expected to be mid-70’s. The folks at the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce are doing their happy dance.
This week’s economic calendar is packed, plus we are in earnings reporting season and some big names will post results this week. Microsoft reported after the close today, and we’ll get to that in just a moment. Apple reports tomorrow. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, reports results on Thursday; it could be an early indicator of the damage being done to company earnings by lower oil prices. Ford Motor, the nation’s second-largest automaker, reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday.
On Wednesday, the Fed will end its two-day policy meeting with a statement but without the usual news conference, so investors don’t expect any big changes; they like to match that with the news conference; instead we’ll be digging through the written statement for any subtle change in wording. The FOMC meeting will probably be the biggest non-event of the week, unless they pull a Swiss National Bank on us.
On Friday, the Commerce Department releases its first estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. The consensus view is that the economy expanded at an annual rate of about 3% in October, November and December, down from the blockbuster 5% rate in the third quarter, but still a healthy pace. There are a few things that might skew the GDP number up or down; a slumping global economy appears to have done little to slow down the US economy, but it doesn’t mean we are completely insulated. We’ve seen good job growth (nearly 3 million net new jobs last year) but wage growth has lagged. Lower oil prices have been disinflationary but every time we go to the gas station it’s like we get to stuff a few extra dollars back into our wallets. The flip side is that means less investment in the energy sector. Oil services firm Baker Hughes published data on Friday that showed the number of US oil rigs fell for a seventh straight week to 1,317, the fewest since January 2013.
