Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), chart by Mish.
BLS Response Rate Notes
CES is the establishment survey, monthly nonfarm payrolls jobs report.Sample Sizes
QCEW stands for Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. It represents 95 percent of the data.BED stands for Business Employment Dynamics. It is a large subset of QCEW.Sample Size Data
QCEW, BED, CES Characteristics(Click on image to enlarge)
CES Response Size
JOLTS Response Size
Who Responded and Who Didn’t?The surveys are voluntary. So who responded and who didn’t?Smaller businesses are much less likely to respond to such surveys because they don’t have a dedicated employment office that deals with government BS.In particular, any struggling or tiny business likely does not have time for this BS. The moment they see the word “voluntary”, the survey goes in the ashcan.Every Month, All Eyes Are on BSNonetheless, every month, mainstream media dissects the monthly jobs report as if it means something.I too produce a monthly report, but I also point out the flaws, the discrepancies between the surveys, and the poor quality of the data relative to QCEW.Employment Drops by 355,000 But Jobs Rise by 227,000 in NovemberOn December 6, I commented
The strange jobs reports continue as the divergence between jobs and employment widens again.
Job Stats vs One Year Ago
In the last year, nonfarm payrolls are up by 2.3 million while employment is down by 725,000 and full-time employment is down by over 1.3 million.A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job RevisionsOn August 22, 2024 I gave Those negative revisions are a direct result of the BLS Birth-Death model gone haywire.Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs OverstatementOn November 20, I commented
Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report.
The 2024 Destruction of Small Business Employment in PicturesThe BLS payroll reports smack of oversampling large employers and undersampling small employers where jobs have been trending lower.For more discussion, please see More By This Author:The Average Age Of Cars Keeps Rising But People Can’t Afford MaintenanceEmployment Drops by 355,000 But Jobs Rise by 227,000 in NovemberLooking For A Job? The Number Of Openings Continues To Shrink
