As the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee wraps up its third meeting of the year, it is still not clear to anyone when and if it will raise interest rates. The Fed previously ruled out raising rates at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday, and the chances of a hike at the June meeting, while still on the table, have steadily decreased amid a drum-beat of weak first-quarter economic data.
The central bank says its decision on when to raise rates will be data-dependent and made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, a stance that it may reaffirm on Wednesday.
Economists say September is more likely than June for the Fed’s so-called “lift-off.” It has kept rates near zero since late 2008 as part of its effort to spur the recovery from the financial crisis.
Futures traders see an even later time horizon, putting the odds of a September hike at only 25 percent, showing little trust in the Fed’s message that it’s moving ahead with plans for what would be the first rate hike since June 2006.
The Fed faces a dilemma of whether to accommodate market expectations of a later lift-off, or “update their communications to nudge the market in the Fed’s direction.”
