Today’s early close across markets likely means that the blow-off top multiple-expansion mania phase (because forward EPS estimates over the past couple – that means 2 to Janet Yellen fanatics – weeks have in fact declined) of 2014 may be coming to an end. However with already abysmal volumes literally grinding to an early halt at 1:15 pm Eastern today, and with a market as boring as this one, where any news is immediately interpreted as good, not matter how bad it actually is or how “revised” or “goal-seeked”, we may see futures, which already are trading some 4 points above fair value, successfully levitate by another 20 points and hit Goldman’s 2100 year end target - year-end for 2015 that is - one year ahead of time.
There has been no macro news in the overnight session to talk about, with Asian markets surging on the back of a decade-high US GDP print, which however even cursory 10 minutes analysis, reveals was what it was, thanks to the second consecutive retroactive revision of consumer income (lower) and spending (higher), with the resultant collapse in savings being goal-seeked. How forced capital reallocation into a socialized-welfare program is bullish and the sufficient catalyst to push the DJIA over 18,000 will one day be clear, just not now.
With European markets either closed or facing early closures ahead of Christmas, as to be expected, price action has been particularly muted throughout the session, with a lack of pertinent newsflow to provide much in the way of traction. In terms of what is currently open, the FTSE 100 is trading in slight positive territory with Smith and Nephew (+8.6%) the notable gainer across Europe following renewed takeover talk from Stryker who may pay as much as a 30% premium. Elsewhere, there has not been anything of note to report, with fixed income markets relatively choppy and the Bund not open for trade.
FX markets saw the USD fail to hold onto its gains above the 90.00 level, with the level being breached to the upside yesterday for the first time since 2006, following the strong US GDP release. Elsewhere, overnight gains in JPY have been largely pared throughout the European session with nothing fundamental at play. In terms of levels to look out for, there is a USD 4.5bln option expiry in USD/JPY at 120.00, although considering we are currently 40 pips north of this handle, it is unlikely this expiry will provide much magnetism for price action.
