The euro continues its summer slide this morning following the surprise QE announcement and interest rate cut from the European Central Bank. Mr. Draghi and company made cuts to the headline rate as well as the deposit facility and marginal lending rate, leading the euro to new 2014 lows before finally announcing they will begin an asset buying program. Details of the QE package remain scant but the markets seem to be pleased as the euro is 1.10% lower since the announcement at 7.45am EST
European equities are rising today after the ECB’s announcement. The Bank of England and Swedish Central Bank held rates at current levels at their own meetings but it was Mr. Draghi pacing the market. U.S. stock futures also rising on this announcement as the S&P 500 has added 0.40% in pre-market trading. Global markets will continue to wait for details of the QE Program set to begin next month as the ECB has downgraded 2015 and 2016 growth figures for mainland Europe. The ECB also cut inflation forecasts for next year as policy makers begin to take real action seeking ways to grow their economy.
In the US, the ADP Employment Change reported +204k new jobs for August, missing expectations centered around +218k. This report, always released before Friday’s non-farms report, has traded either side of +200k for the better part of 2014, further indicating a healthy labor market in the US. Tomorrow’s NFP report is the big one though, as markets anticipate another strong result around +200k for August. The US continues to trend higher as manufacturing, housing and labor numbers all consistently beat expectations and support the dollar and equity markets.
Briefly looking at Canada, their central bank held rates firm at 1% yesterday at the most recent policy meeting. The Bank of Canada sees inflation and GDP in line with its expectations as policy bias remains neutral. The Loonie is stronger by about 1% since the announcement as commodity prices have recovered this morning and EUR/CAD selling has ramped up following this morning’s ECB meeting. The BoC may be edging towards a less dovish view with the next statement due for October 22nd.
This week, there were rumors of a cease-fire in Ukraine but Russian leaders put that to bed as Mr. Putin seems to be waging a “shadow war†until he has assumed control of much of eastern Ukraine. The Russian and Ukrainian leaders have agreed to work on a “case-fire regime†as 67 world leaders come together at a NATO Summit in Wales. It is clear that sanctions imposed on Russia this sum
mer have actually further hampered the European economy so it is in everyone’s best interests to find a solution to this problem sooner rather than later. We will continue to monitor these very choppy markets.
