“WOW” is the only word to describe the excitement buzzing around the European cannabis community. The cannabis markets in Europe and abroad have been set ablaze with the most dramatic shifts forward with cannabis legislation since the European Union began opening access to cannabis in 2017. All sides of the industry are benefitting from these exciting developments: Cultivators who were once squeezed are now finding homes for their flower; extracts are selling more than ever; distributors are hitting profitable margins; cannabis clinics are popping up at a rapid pace; new countries are opening access to cannabis; and pharmaceutical players are entering the market in force.
Medical Cannabis in Germany is Leading the Way
The main driver of cannabis volume in the EU is coming from Germany after the country removed cannabis from the narcotics list in April 2024. New clinics have entered the market rapidly over the last quarters to fulfill patient-driven demand. Removing the narcotic listing of cannabis has thrust Germany into the global spotlight and allowed doctors to prescribe cannabis freely. After all, the Department of Health and Human Services’s report definitively states that cannabis is safe and Germany agrees. As access becomes easier, German patient numbers are increasing, and these patients are being serviced faster than ever. Volumes are doubling and tripling across the board, floating all boats and bringing much-needed revenue, profit and investment monies to an industry that was self-cannabilizing for years.
Financial Outlook of Medical Cannabis in Germany
Germany is on track to reach a one-billion-euro market by mid to late 2025. Numbers like these have drawn the attention of Big Pharma players. Politicians are also eyeing the 190 million Euros in TVA taxes that will be generated through cannabis sales 19% TVA, not to mention the benefits of job creation decrease in illicit market activities. One billion euros of GDP growth and 190 million euros in taxes is enough to make countries in the EU and globally pay attention and start addressing the medical benefits of cannabis access as well as the benefits of policies to curb illicit cannabis use under solid regulatory frameworks. The massive success of Germany’s burgeoning medical cannabis market has lit a fire under every regulatory agency in the EU — and globally — and there is little stopping this movement.What to Expect from the German Cannabis Market in 2025 Patient numbers will keep increasing rapidly throughout the fourth quarter of 2024 and into 2025. Cultivators worldwide will find a home for their products and fill the gaps in patient demand as they push back against years of price compression. Cultivators looking to raise prices and patient-driven initiatives to lower prices leave distributors and pharmacies squeezed in the middle. New pharmaceutical distribution models add additional pressure to stressed cannabis distribution models in the middle. The increased demand for cannabis makes the short-term navigable as distributors and pharmacies emphasize service volume over quality, thus picking up margins. However, that will most likely only be temporary. By mid-2025, we can inevitably expect margin compression from patients which will pressure the operators in the middle.
Medical Cannabis News Across the EU
Germany isn’t the only country making waves in the medical cannabis industry. Spain proudly debuted its medical cannabis rules after three years of waiting and seems intent on a magistral extract-only market. Ukraine’s law officially legalizing medical cannabis is now in effect, eight months post-approval. While the Ministry of Health is finalizing the list of approved medical conditions, it notably excludes post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Efforts are underway to ensure patients with non-listed conditions can still access treatment, although their access may be more limited. France has announced a temporary delay in accepting new applications for its extract-only market until the beginning of 2025. This decision is part of an amendment proposing to modify the Social Security Financing Law to extend the transition period by an additional year, pushing the end date to December 31, 2025. Almost every EU country is now revisiting their cannabis policies: Ireland is debating adding chronic pain to the limited list of indications; Czechia is expected to change access rules; Poland has been increasing their volume limits, and so on. It’s an exciting time for medical cannabis in the EU.
Global Medical Cannabis Developments
Countries around the world are also revisiting their medical cannabis laws and experiencing exciting shifts toward increased patient access.Brazil’s extract-only market has been surging, aided by a Supreme Court ruling superseding current laws. Japan temporarily pushed its new CBD rules back until Q4. The country still seems to be on track to make its most significant change in 75 years, even though the shift is small by global standards.
A Financial Look at the Global Medical Cannabis Industry
Money has quietly been finding homes in the biggest names, and there is hope that smaller groups will start to attract much-needed capital as investors comb from the top down. Somai Pharmaceuticals once again completed its pre-planned second-round raise, adding 8 million euros to continue increasing its multi-country strategy and bringing its total cap stack to 30 million euros. The final raise marked the successful completion of a KPI-driven strategy set four years ago. Demecan seems to have raised an undisclosed seven-figure amount, giving it an almost 100-million-euros valuation. The company received a combination of equity and convertibles from an American investment firm. Although the announced raises are lagging, there may be far more additional internal or smaller, unannounced investments. Nevertheless, there is a considerable amount of buzz and action in the medical cannabis markets worldwide. Q4 will certainly bring more deals to a close, as well as more EU countries joining the push for medical cannabis access.
Cannabis in the EU: Poised for Future Growth
The EU cannabis explosion is happening, and everyone is feeling the positive results after many tough years of increased competition without an increase in the market. We’re beginning to see an increased market with less worry about the competition since all are making money as the industry explodes.More By This Author:
European Cannabis Q3 2024 Quarterly Update
