A refreshing upside surprise for euro-zone inflation: core inflation was upgraded from 0.7% to 0.8% y/y, while headline inflation remains at low bottom levels of 0.3% y/y. Headline CPI is likely to slide on lower oil prices. Core CPI depends on demand.
EUR/USD rises above 1.28 in the immediate aftermath.
Trade balance came out at 15.8 billion, better than 13.5 billion expected.
Final numbers for September were expected to confirm the initial read of 0.3% y/y CPI inflation and +0.7% in core CPI. Both levels have been seen in the past, but never together.
EUR/USD traded just under 1.28 towards the publication, slightly off the highs it shot to in the massive dollar sell off yesterday.
Global gloom hit the US dollar and was triggered by worse than expected retail sales numbers. Stock markets also crashed and yields of developed countries tanked.
Some see EUR/USD climbing to 1.31 while others are dollar bullish.
Draghi vowed to battle low inflation and to do whatever is needed. Lower oil prices certainly serve as an excuse, but they are far from the only factor weighing on prices: the lack of growth has a bigger impact.
Levels to watch are 1.2850, 1.28, 1.2750, 1.27 and 1.2660. For more, see the euro dollar forecast.
