US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. This event is usually released on the first Friday of the month, but has been brought up a day due to the Fourth of July holiday. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Update: Non-Farm Payrolls: +223K below expectations – USD down
Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can affect the direction of EUR/USD.
Nonfarm Employment Change was outstanding in May, jumping to 280 thousand, compared to just 223 thousand a month earlier. This reading crushed the estimate of 222 thousand. However, the markets are expecting a sharp drop in the June report, with a forecast of 231 thousand. Will the indicator repeat and beat the estimate for the upcoming release?
Sentiment and Levels
The high-stakes poker game between Greece and its creditors has reached feverish proportions, as the markets and the euro continue to move on every new development, whether real or not. If a deal is hammered out, a relief rally could be short lived as the markets will likely refocus on monetary policy divergence. The ECB is still printing euros and has no plans to stop it, while data continues improving in the US, and the FOMC may be slightly more hawkish than perceived So, the overall sentiment remains bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1370, 1.1290, 1.1190, 1.1113, 1.1050 and 1.0910.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 228K to 234K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 235K to 239K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above 239K: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could push the pair lower and two or more support lines could fall as a result.
- Below expectations: 223K to 227K: A weaker reading than forecast could result in EUR/USD breaking above one resistance line.
- Well below expectations: Below 223K. In this scenario, the pair could break through two or more resistance lines.    Â
For more about the euro, see the EUR/USD.
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