EUR/USD began the week with a break out of the downtrend channel and towards a higher resistance line. Will this optimism over the Basel III continue pushing the Euro higher on a light day? Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.
EUR/USD broker above temporary downtrend channel. Click to enlarge.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: Â Active session seeing EUR/USD break out above 1.2770, and bouncing off 1.2840.
- Current Range is between 1.2770 and 1.2840.
- Further levels: Below,  1.2770, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above  1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30, 1.3110 and 1.3267.
- Downtrend channel broken and left behind: EUR/USD traded towards the end of last week in a temporary downtrend channel. This was broken and left behind.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.
- Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, talks at Basel. He might comment on the Basel II accord that is pushing the Euro higher.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- After lengthy talks, an agreement was reached in Basel regarding the banking system – this international agreement is expected to make banks more stable. The implementation will be very gradual.
- The reason for the big collapse last week – European debt issues, with a strong focus on Irish banks, made a “comebackâ€. These issues might return this week as well.
- Market is drifting between “risk on†and “risk off†with a tendency to “risk onâ€. With “risk offâ€, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior.
- 1.2660 is a stronghold on the downside, 1.2930 on the upside.
- Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, up from 57:43 yesterday. These are 958 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.
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