EUR/USD Oct. 10 – Struggling After Pessimistic IMF Report

EUR/USD remains under pressure after yesterday’s (Oct. 9th) sharp drop. There was more bad news for the euro, but this time from an unexpected source. The IMF published a report in which it reduced its forecast for global economic growth, and sounded the alarm over a possible breakup of the Euro-zone. The euro is also under pressure over market uncertainty as to whether Spain will request a bailout and as tough negotiations continue between Greece and international creditors. In economic news, Industrial Production numbers in both France and Italy were well above the estimate.

Here’s an update about technical lines, fundamental indicators and sentiment regarding EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady after sharp losses earlier on Tuesday. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
• Current range: 1.2814 to 1.2900.

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.2814, 1.2750, 1.2670, 1.2624, 1.2587, 1.2520 and 1.2460.
• Above: 1.29, 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3060, 1.3105, 1.32, 1.3290, 1.34, 1.3437, 1.3480 and 1.3540.
• 1.29 is currently on the upside as the pair has weakened.
• 1.2814 is the next line of support.

Euro/dollar under pressure after pessimistic IMF report– click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 US FOMC Member Janet Yellen Speaks in Tokyo.
• 6:00 German WPI. Exp. 0.4%. Actual 1.3%.
• 6:45 French Industrial Production. Exp. -0.2%. Actual +1.5%.
• 8:00 Italian Industrial Production. Exp. -0.5%. Actual +1.7%.
• 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. +0.5%.
• 17:00 US 10-year Bond Auction.
• 18:00 US Beige Book.
• 20:30 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• IMF sounds alarm over Euro-zone: The IMF released a Global Finance Stability Report which rattled market sentiment. The report reduced its forecast for global growth from 3.5% to 3.3%, and expressed pessimism about the situation in Europe. Without drastic action to combat the debt crisis, the report stated, the capital flight out of Europe will worsen, and deteriorating economic conditions could lead to the breakup of the Euro-zone. This gloomy news could further dampen confidence in the shaky euro.
• German official’s comments rile Spain: ”When we rescue Spain and Greece, we are thinking about our banks” said Jürgen Donges, one of the 5 members in Germany’s economic council. Hearing a senior German official say this clearly caused anger in Spain. If his words continue to echo, it might delay the bailout request. And were does the bailout request stand? Spain’s deputy PM said the bailout is a question of “when” and not “if”, but other senior figures said that this decision depends on conditions, and that it might not be made. ECB president Mario Draghi made it clear that the central bank’s OMT program is ready for use for Spain, but Spain needs to ask for aid. If Spain needs the bailout, why the delay? There are a host of reasons, including lower Spanish yields and internal regional elections.
• Greece/Troika talks deadlocked: Meeting in Luxembourg, European finance ministers were full of praise over Greece’s determination to trim its budget and improve its fiscal situation, raising the likelihood that the ECB will approve the next bundle of bailout funds. There was some talk that the ECB could accept a delay in payments or lower interest rates, but this was ruled out by Jörg Asmussen, a German member of the ECB which is considered close to the German government. He also said the current calm is “deceptive”. So, the next “deadline” is the EU Summit on October 18-19th. Meanwhile, German Chancellor made sure to sound conciliatory on her visit to Athens, complimenting the Greek government’s actions and declaring that she was confident that the country’s austerity measures would pay off.
• US economic releases gain attention in election campaign:With polls showing a tight election race in the US, every economic release becomes critical and part of the campaign strategy of both sides. The US added 114K jobs in September, and revisions added an additional 86K. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, despite a rise in the participation rate – a figure that is very important for Bernanke. These goods figures were marred by a rapid gain in temporary jobs rather than permanent ones, and they stirred a political debate as elections are less than a month away. In general, the market favors Romney – the Republican’s strong showing in the first television debate boosted the markets and weakened the dollar.
• US Releases Mixed: The downwards revision of Q2 GDP was quite depressing and showed that the US economy is at stall speed. However, improvement from housing and a surprising drop in jobless claims are positive points. Both and The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI easily beat the market estimate and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change pushed higher for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, gas prices have spiked sharply in many states. This not only leads to higher prices throughout the  economy, but could affect consumer confidence and impact on the tight presidential race, with elections less than a month away.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs