EUR/USD Nov. 17 – Falls below 1.25 as dovish ECB

EUR/USD is ticking below 1.25, unable to hold on to Friday’s squeeze move at the very end of the trading week. A few ECB members are speaking, led by president Mario Draghi and they are joined by some US figures. Can the pair hold on to the gains or is it set to resume the downtrend? So far, ECB member Mersch is offering a wide array of buys, and this pushes the pair down.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

• Asian session: The pair made a move to 1.2570 but retreated…
• Current range: 1.25 to 1.2570

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2440, 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
• Above: 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
• 1.2570 is key resistance
• 1.2360 is the multi-year low and 1.25 is a very round number.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 9:00 ECB member Yves Mersch talk. He lists ETFs as potential buys.
• 10:00 Euro-zone Trade Balance. Exp. 16.2 billion.
• 11:00 German Bundesbank Monthly Report.
• 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Exp. 12.1 points.
• 14:00 ECB President Mario Draghi talks.
• 14:15 US Industrial Production. Exp. +0.2%.
• 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Exp. 79.3^

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Mersch gives ECB’s potential shopping list: ECB member Yves Mersch talks about buying state bonds, gold, shares and ETFs as potential ways to expand the ECB’s balance sheet. This wide shopping list is probably needed to expand the central bank’s balance sheet by 1 trillion euros. ETFs are being bought in Japan and this is a bold proposal.
• Germany escapes recession, just: The euro-zone’s powerhouse managed to score a 0.1% growth rate in Q3, avoiding two consecutive quarters of contraction. The whole euro-zone grew by 0.2%. Despite escaping the R word, this is still very poor growth. UK PM David Cameron said the euro-zone is on the brink of a third recession.
• Confident Americans: US retail sales grew more than expected in October and consumer confidence for November increased ahead of Thanksgiving. This good news joins the “quits” component in the JOLTs report, which showed that the number of Americans quitting their jobs is at the highest level since 2008. This is another sign of confidence.

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