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Trading on the Euro/dollar pair closed up on Tuesday at 1.0932. A bare economic calendar in the US allowed the Euro to recover some of its losses and renew the session maximum owing to a drop in US bond yields to 2.18%.
Market expectations:
Our pair has been trading in a sideways trend for the last 7 days. On the 3rd of May, the price range is 62 pips, running from 1.0880 to 1.0942 levels. I’m inclined to say that this instrument will continue its sideways trend at least until the Fed’s monetary policy meeting is concluded. It’s expected that the US central bank will maintain interest rates within the range of 0.75% to 1.00%. CME’s FedWatch tool puts the likelihood of a rate hike at 4.8%. There is no press conference planned for Janet Yellen, the head of the Fed.
In the build-up to the second round of the French presidential election, the single currency will be particularly sensitive to new surveys on the candidates. The latest opinion poll from Elabe shows that Le Pen has closed the gap on Macron from 28 to 18 (Macron/Le Pen: 59/41).
The resistance runs through 1.0942 level. I’m allowing for the possibility that buyers may test this level before trading opens in Europe in the face of the rising EUR/GBP cross. I’m expecting to see a rate of around 1.0918 around the time of the Fed’s announcement.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
- 10:55 Germany: unemployment change (Apr);
- 11:30 UK: PMI construction (Apr);
- 12:00 Eurozone: preliminary GDP data (Q1), PPI (Mar);
- 15:15 USA: ADP employment change (Apr);
- 16:45 USA: Markit services PMI (Apr);
- 17:00 USA: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Apr);
- 17:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks change (Apr 28);
- 21:00 USA: Fed’s monetary policy statement, Fed interest rate decision.
EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
Intraday forecast: low: n/a, high: n/a, close: n/a.
The EUR/USD is trading in a sideways trend, but the end of this phase is near. The price will exit the range by the end of the week, or at least expand its borders. From a low of 1.084, the rate restored by 45 degrees. 1.0942/45 level is covering sellers, while buyers are covered by the balance line lb at 1.0911 and the 45th degree at 1.0885. The 22nd degree is at 1.0911.
