EUR/USD March 20 – Under Pressure as Cyprus Crisis

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Cyprus bailout crisis deepens. The Cypriot parliament met in an emergency session on Tuesday and voted overwhelmingly to reject the conditions for a EUR10 billion bailout, which includes a controversial tax on all bank deposits in Cypriot banks. Looking at economic news, German ZEW Economic Sentiment sparkled, while Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment slumped badly. In the US, Building Permits posted its best performance since 2008. Wednesday brought more mixed data from the Eurozone, as German PPI declined, while Eurozone Current Account easily beat the estimate. In the US, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting later today and will release a Monetary Policy Statement. 

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar edged higher, and crossed above 1.29 late in the session. The pair consolidated at 1.2899. In the European session, the pair has edged higher.
• Current range: 1.2880 to 1.2960.

Further levels in both directions: 

• Below: 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2746, 1.27, 1.2660 and 1.2587.
• Above: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3255, 1.3290, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3486 and 1.3588.
• 1.2960 is the next line of resistance. 1.3000 stronger.
• 1.2880 is providing support level. This is followed by 1.2805.

Euro/dollar steady as Cyprus crisis continues to weigh on markets – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German PPI. Exp. 0.2%. Actual -0.1%
• 9:00 Eurozone Current Account. Exp. 7.9B. Actual 14.8B
• Tentative: German 10-year Bond Auction
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 1.8M
• 15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Exp. -23 points
• 18:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 18:00 US FOMC Statement
• 18:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Exp. <0.25%
• 18:30 US FOMC Press Conference

For more events and lines, see the EUR/USD

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Cypriot Parliament votes no to bailout: The small island of Cyprus is not used to being in financial headlines, but finds itself in the international spotlight this week. Over the weekend, a bailout agreement was reached over the weekend between the EU, IMF and the Cypriot government in the amount of 10 billion euros. However, a controversial provision in the agreement has sent the currency markets spinning. Under the terms of the bailout package, deposit holders in Cypriot banks would be levied with a one-time tax, between 6.7% and 9.9%, depending on the size of the deposit. This tax is intended to raise 5.8 billion euros, which would be a condition to receiving the 10 billion euro bailout. . Cypriots were understandably in an uproar, as this marked the first time in the Eurozone debt crisis that bank depositors were being asked to take a haircut as part of a bailout. There was a run on bank machines, as Cypriot banks were closed for a holiday. Taxing bank deposits is unusual, and there is a fear that other debt-ridden countries, such as Spain, could face bank runs as well. On Tuesday, the Cypriot parliament voted overwhelmingly against the bailout deal, despite the government’s pleas that rejecting the agreement could lead to a bank collapse. In an attempt to contain the crisis, Eurozone finance ministers are likely to meet today to discuss the options for Cyprus following the nay vote in parliament. 
• US numbers a mix (again): US data continues to be a mixed bag of good and bad. Tuesday’s housing numbers looked good, as Building Permits hit a multi-year high, and Housing Starts matched expectations. Last week was yet another example of the mix we are seeing in US data, making it difficult to assess how strong the recovery is. Employment and retail sales data looked sharp, but Friday was a different story. UoM Consumer Sentiment fell well below expectations. and the Empire State Manufacturing Index also missed the estimate. The US Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday for a policy meeting, and it will be interesting to see it’s take on the health of the US economy.
• Italian Political Stalemate Continues: The political stalemate which has paralyzed Italy for several weeks continues. Even by Italian standards, the political puzzle is bewildering, and the only solution may mean yet another election. Most Italians oppose going back to the polls, but so far, the political leaders have not made any headway as far as forming a new government. Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has asked Prime Minister Mario Monti to stay on until the political crisis subsides. The financial markets are increasingly concerned that the ongoing political impasse will lead to an economic crisis in the Eurozone’s third largest economy. Last week, Italy’s three-year borrowing costs rose to their highest level since December. This comes on the heels of a recent credit downgrade to Italy’s debt by the Fitch rating agency. There is increasing concern that a prolonged political vacuum will lead to an full-blown economic crisis in the Eurozone’s third largest economy.
• Markets wait for Federal Reserve announcement: The Federal Reserve meets for a policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates, but the markets will be anxiously awaiting what the Fed decides to do regarding the current round of QE. With the US recovery looking stronger and unemployment nudging lower, there has been speculation that the Federal Reserve might wind down or modify its asset purchasing program. However, Fed head Bernard Bernanke and other senior officials have said QE will continue as is. If the Fed surprises the markets, we can expect a reaction from EUR/USD.

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