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EUR/USD chewed through chart paper between 1.0550 and 1.0600 levels on Tuesday, testing into the low side but staging a recovery to add a thin 0.14% on the day. Final pan-EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation figures did little to galvanize Fiber traders in either direction, and Greenback markets have to settle for a thin release schedule this week.Headline HICP inflation in Europe held at a perfectly-even 2.0% YoY in October, matching preliminary figures. The data point was a non-starter in Euro markets, sparking little interest on either side of the bid-ask spread. US data remains muted until the latter half of the trading week brings unemployment claims and Retail Sales figures.ECB President Lagarde appears on Wednesday to deliver the opening remarks at the ECB’s Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy. The ECB is currently caught between a rock and a hard place as European inflation continues to hold stickier than European policymakers had initially expected, and the broader European economy continues to tilt lopsided.US economic data releases remain thin in the front half of the trading week. Mid-tier Initial Jobless Claims are due on Thursday, and expected to show a slight uptick in the number of new unemployment benefits seekers for the week ended November 15. US S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity figures will be the number to watch this week, but won’t be dropping on investors until Friday.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD has backslid nearly 6.5% top-to-bottom from September’s peak just above 1.1200, bottoming out near the 1.0500 handle before an anemic recovery into 1.0600. Despite a near-term upswing, Fiber remains staunchly in bear country, with price action trading well below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0900.A swell of bearish momentum in recent weeks has kicked the 50-day EMA below the long-run moving average, and is now poised for a decline into 1.0800. If the current bullish play runs out of steam, both buyers and sellers should expect that to occur somewhere near the still-falling 50-day EMA.
EUR/USD daily chart
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