The euro temporarily forgot about the ECB’s QE. The Fed’s no hike decision and lower forecasts in general boost EUR/USD.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1390, up from around 1.1330 but below the peak of 1.1420 seen earlier. Here is what’s moving the euro now and why the move may be limited.
The euro enjoys flows, but as this is a “risk on†move, the gains are more limited. Commodity currencies receive more flow. If the Fed remains loose, there is no need to repatriate funds, something that happened in times of trouble, most recently related to the crises in Greece and China.
Yellen certainly addressed global worries, but maintained the stance that the Fed will likely hike in 2015.
Update: it seems that the global mood is worsening and the euro begins enjoying safe haven flows. EUR/USD is extending its gains.
The pair hit a high of 1.1420, still below the key level of 1.1460 which was a cycle high for quite some time. The next level above 1.15 is 1.1534, which also played a role in the past.
Above, further resistance awaits only at 1.1680, which capped a recovery attempt, and 1.1712, which was the swing high in the August Chinese crash.
On the downside, 1.13 remains a pivotal line in the range, followed by the round level of 1.12 and then 1.1080.
Fed decision in September – all the updates
Here is the EUR/USD daily chart:
