EUR/USD has edged lower on Wednesday, as the pair trades just shy of the 1.38 line in the European session. In economic news, German Consumer Climate remains at high levels and matched the forecast. In the US, Tuesday’s numbers were a mix. Consumer Confidence hit a six-year high, but New Home Sales slipped in February. Wednesday’s key release is Core Durable Goods Orders. The markets are expecting a much smaller gain than in the previous release.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- EUR/USD edged lower in the Asian session, closing close to the 1.38 line. The pair is unchanged in European trading.
Current range: 1.3740 to 1.38.
Further levels in both directions:Â Â Â 
- Below: 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and 1.3560, 1.3515 and 13450.
- Above: 1.38, 1.3895, 1.3940, and 1.40
- 1.3740 is the new important support line. The round number of 1.37 follows.
- 1.38 has switched to a resistance line. It is under strong pressure.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 GfK German Consumer Climate. Exp. 8.5, actual 8.5 points.
- 9:00 Italian Retail Sales. Exp. 0.4%, Actual 0.0%.
- 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Exp. 0.3%.
- 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Exp. 1.1%.
- 13:45 US Flash Services PMI. Exp. 54.2 points.
- 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 2.9M.
- 20:30 US Bank Stress Results.
*All times are GMT For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- German consumer confidence high: German Consumer Climate remains at high levels, posting a second straight reading of 8.5 points, matching the forecast. The indicator has steadily risen, and the last time we saw a stronger reading was back in 2007, before the global economic crisis. German Business Climate also looked sharp in February. Increasing consumer confidence usually translates into more consumer spending, which is a critical component of economic growth.
- US data mixed: CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 82.3 points, easily surpassing the estimate of 78.7 points. This was the key indicator’s best showing since December 2007. The news wasn’t as good from the housing sector, as New Home Sales fell to 440 thousand, down sharply from the January release of 468 thousand. The reading was short of the estimate of 447 thousand. We’ll get a look at Pending Home Sales on Thursday.
- The Mario cap: With the recent fall, EUR/USD is far from the round 1.40 line. As we’ve seen, ECB president did not hesitate to talk the euro down once it got close to these levels. This “verbal resistance line†counters Chinese flows into the euro-zone.
- Ukraine crisis takes a breather: The US and its European allies have imposed limited sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea, but are holding off on additional measures if Russia does not take further military action. The lack of a tough response from the West reflects divisions within Europe over how strong a stance to take against Moscow. Meanwhile, the Ukraine has signed an association agreement with the EU and is seeking a loan package of up to $20 billion from the IMF. Ukraine’s economy has suffered badly after months of political turmoil.
