EUR/USD continues to trade at high levels on Tuesday. The pair has hit six-week highs, as it trades in the mid-1.37 range in Tuesday’s European session. German releases were sluggish to start the week, and French Industrial Production posted a decline on Tuesday. Later on, ECB head Mario Draghi will deliver remarks in Rome at an event at the Bank of Italy. Over in the US, it’s another quiet day, highlighted by JOLTS Job Openings.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- EUR/USD was uneventful in the Asian session, touching a high of 1.3767 and consolidating at 1.3749. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3710 to 1.3800.
Further levels in both directions:Â 
- Below: 1.3710, 1.3675, 1.3615, 1.3525, 1.3440, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175 and 1.31.
- Above: 1.3800, 1.3870, 1.3940 and 1.4036.
- 1.3710 is providing weak support. 1.3675 is next.
- The round number of 1.3800 is the next line of resistance. 1.3870 follows.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:45 French Industrial Production. Exp. 0.2%, Actual -0.3%.
- 9:00 Italian Industrial Production. Exp. 0.3%, Actual 0.5%.
- All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
- 12:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks.
- 12:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Exp. 92.7 points.
- 15:00 US JOLTS Openings. Exp. 3.96M.
- 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. 0.3%.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- German data disappoints: The week started off on a sour note, as German releases fell below market expectations on Monday. Germany’s trade surplus shrank to 16.8 billion euros, down from 18.8 billion in October. Industrial Production declined by 1.2%, the third decline in the past four readings. The estimate stood at 0.8%. If German numbers don’t improve, we’re unlikely to see much growth out of the struggling Eurozone economy. We’ll get a look at some German inflation indicators later in the week.
- Non-Farm Payrolls shine: US employment numbers continue to look sharp. On Friday, Non-Farm Payrolls was almost unchanged, coming in at 203 thousand. This was well above the estimate of 180 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.3% to 7.0%, beating the estimate of 7.2%. The strong numbers are sure to increase the pressure on the Fed to taper QE when its meets later in December.
- Will Fed taper in December? Last week’s employment numbers were super, as Unemployment Claims, Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate all impressed. The Fed has said that a stronger employment picture is a prerequisite to tapering, and last week’s numbers certainly increase the possibility of the Fed taking action at its December policy meeting. Other factors also favor a December taper.
- Euro gains as ECB maintains rate: As expected, the ECB did not make reduce interest rates last week, which remain at the record low of 0.25%. As well, the deposit rate remains at 0.0%. After the rate decision, ECB head Mario Draghi said that the Bank would continue its accommodative policy stance and that interest rates would remain at current or lower levels for some time. He noted that there had been some discussion at the policy meeting about lowering the deposit rate. There wasn’t much new as far as projected growth for the Eurozone, with Draghi saying that the ECB forecast for 2013 remains at -0.4%, with the 2014 prediction revised slightly higher, up to 1.1% growth from 1.0%. The euro gained one cent on Thursday and continues to trade at high levels against the dollar.
