The meeting of finance ministers began in Brussels. Early comments from various officials were very optimistic and sent EUR/USD towards high resistance.
Optimism is now fading the pair eases. The pair seems to follow the pattern seen this time last week – a big fall. Updates.
EUR/USD kicked off the week with a gap and then broke above 1.3212. The pair then climbed and reached 1.3277. 1.3280 wasn’t broken.
A big fall began from this area this time last week. The pair bottomed out only under 1.30 last time. It then recovered on high hopes for a deal. But is the deal coming?
Worries
Greek officials were very optimistic about a positive outcome for the meeting and saw it as a day when uncertainty will end. The second Greek bailout deal is at stake, including the haircut for private bondholders.
Others, such as Austrian fiance minister Fekter and German finance minister Schäuble expressed cautious optimism.
But looking at the details showed that there are too many missing pieces in the puzzle. This includes the gap seen in the secret troika report, the IMF contribution and more.
The optimism was broken by the Dutch finance minister, that conditioned the approval on Greece meeting its obligations.
Waiting
As the meeting is in progress, the pair is now trading lower, at 1.3245. Minor support is at 1.3212, followed by 1.3145.
A scenario of a conditional approval or a bridge loan seem more realistic than a celebration of signing off the deal.
I still think that the chances of a deal are low and the Greece is pushed to declare bankruptcy. Mistrust is just too high.
For more about the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.
