We kicked off the day with US Trade Balance, Exports & Imports at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Final & S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Employment , ISM Services New New Orders, and ISM Services Prices at 9:00 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., LMI Logistics Managers Index, Total Vehicle Sales, and Presidential Election.The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that new car sales and light truck sales rose for the 2nd consecutive month in October to 16.04 Mil vehicles, or 2% more than September. Compared to a year ago, sales were up 5%, marking the largest year-over-year increase since February. Jan-Oct sales of 156.4 were up 1% from a year ago, at a 5-year high. Light trucks and SUV’s fall outside Obama-era regulations that required new cars to have a minimum 36 MPG fuel economy. In June the Biden Administration issued new rules that will raise fuel milage requirements by 2%/year starting in 2027, and fuel economy for all cars and light trucks must be at 50.4 MPG by 2031.
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South American Weather PatternBrazilian Monsoon Continues to Perform; La Nina Based Dryness Absent from Argentina through Mid-November:The South American forecast is little change from prior output, and a pattern of normal to above normal rainfall continues in both Argentina and Brazil into Nov 13th . The GFS model’s projected 8-day shows substantial net boosts in soil moisture in major crop areas in central and northern Brazil, while light/moderate rain in central and southern Argentina Sun-Mon keep soil moisture levels stable. Extreme heat stays absent as subsoil moisture improves. Importantly, 8-20 day guidance features low odds of prolonged dryness in Argentina and S Brazil. Cooling of the equatorial Pacific remains slow/erratic in nature, and Ag Resources (ARC) detailed that worst case scenarios are likely to be avoided in Argentina this growing season.
Central US Weather PatternNeeded Rain to Expand Across Southern Plains; Additional Midwest Precipitation Forecast Nov 10-15:The Central US forecast has trended wetter into mid-November, with confidence high that soaking rain reaches farther into the US HRW Belt this week, and as an additional easing or even elimination of drought – in the central Midwest is forecast late next week. Near constant rain lingers over the E Plains, Midwest, and Delta for another 48 hours. A second system impacts TX, OK, KS, and CO, fri-Sun, with heavy totals of 1-3” projected. Yet more rain is probable across the E Midwest Nov 10-11. Accumulation of 1-4” will be spread across all but MT, ND, and northern MN. Soil moisture anomalies projected by NOAA on Nov 18th . Normal/surplus moisture is anticipated across the heaviest concentration of HRW acreage, while the end of drought is projected in larger areas of MO, WI, IL, IN, and the mid-South.CBOT Corn Rallies; South American Weather Threats Stay Absent; Ukrainian Market Probes for Demand:Dec CBOT corn ended firm amid soaring crude oil, as OPEC announced it would not raise production, and as the trade preps for the US Presidential election today. A binary reaction to late days results lies ahead, and the close nature of polling keeps uncertainty high. Otherwise, ARC’s research maintains March above $4.40is a selling opportunity amid probable lack of La Nina and as competitive for nearby importer demand returns. Ukrainian fob are down $.12/Bu from last week, and the market there sits at parity with US Gulf origin. It’s difficult to be bearish of US exports during winter/early spring, but ARC reiterates daily/weekly US export demand has ebbed and flowed along with the US’s position in the global marketplace. The Ukrainian cash market today is willing to add to existing export commitments. US harvest pressure is fading – harvest is 91% complete – but the market will struggle outside a range of $4.10-$4.40 basis March, without South American supply loss. Expect a crop rating improvement in Argentina.
Monday’s CBOT Open Interest MixedCorn open interest fell 7,319 contracts, while soybeans were up 2,395, Chicago wheat up 6,799 contracts , soybean meal rose a surprising 7,397 contracts and soybean oil was up 2,513 contracts.More By This Author:
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