When my children were young, one of the books we read to them was: “When You Give a Mouse a Cookie.†The point of the book is to follow a chain reaction stemming from providing a treat to a rodent. He will want a glass of milk, a napkin, have to sweep up crumbs, etc. It was odd, but entertaining.
I’m often reminded of this book when I see economic reports. It’s not that the numbers are frivolous, but taken as individual data points they can’t mean very much.
Everyone knows this, and yet the world hangs on each announcement as if it were the most important thing to ever happen. Maybe it’s driven by the media, but I think investors, as consumers of the financial media, are part of the issue. It’s just the way we are wired.
Warren Buffett once said that in the short-term equity markets are voting machines, but in the long-term they are weighing machines.
His point was that on any given day the equity markets are something of a popularity contest. Story stocks with a lot of sizzle shoot up the charts, posting dizzying returns, while those seen as ugly ducklings are cast out.
But over time, beauty fades. Investors tend to evaluate companies based on what they return to their shareholders in earnings and dividends, as well as what they expect in the future, and tend to view economic statistics as steps on a path, instead of each number being an end unto itself.
To shorten this up – we’re emotional in the moment, but rational over time.
Unfortunately, we live in the moment. The first Friday of every month is a great example.
At the start of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces how many jobs were added to non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and a host of lesser statistics.
Economists, analysts, and a myriad of market watchers all have expectations of what these numbers will be. There is a build of anticipation right before the numbers are announced, then, at the magic moment of 8:30 a.m., the figures hit the tape. Bam!
