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Opinions wildly vary following the Presidential election as to whether we are facing an economic feast or famine. There is the notion the stock market will continue to melt up with Trump riding to rescue America’s economy. He is doing this with his new best friend Elon. This of course discounts the idea momentum is to the downside and the bull market in stocks is long in the tooth. What some economic pendants refer to as the “everything bubble” has propelled the wealth effect forward at the same time higher interest rates have bolstered the spending of savers. It is important to remember that much of this economy has been built on this so-called “wealth effect” which has over the years come off the rails leading to economic crisis.This leaves the question of, where things go from here. These include the effects of inflation or deflation and how they are destined to play out. Below are a few of the factors being spun by those making a bullish or bear case:The government deficit and spending is out of control and must be cutTax cuts may stimulate the economy and consumer spending but may result in a larger deficitCutting government spending will cause many government layoffs adding to unemploymentJanet Yellen financed America’s debt with short-term notes and a lot of debt needs to be rolled overGovernment workers, many in unions, will be demanding huge wage increases driving inflation higher.Increased sovereign debt will drive long-term bond yields higher.A healthy economy flows from a vibrant middle-class based on the small businesses that we have destroyed. Trump not known for his spending restraint, has benefited from inflation, will he now save the masses?Will egomaniac Elon Musk with his history of feeding at the government trough put America first?Expanding the money supply faster than the supply of goods debases fiat currencies.Promises of higher productivity “without cutting jobs” are easier said than done. Bringing companies and jobs home is good for America but tariffs come with some cost to consumers Many of the things RFK is correctly advocating to make America healthy will impact company profits.My point is that many of us who watch the economy don’t agree on where things are going. The above factors and many more feed into this and the course forward may be volatile. In short, turning around many of the strong negative trends haunting America will not be easy. This will be difficult and akin to turning around a battleship in a bathtub. A Paul Gabrial, Everything Money video titled; “” recently promoted his own views about a Clear Value Tax video series called “The Great Melt Up” claiming his message needed to be heard by the masses. The reason I mention this video is it does an interesting job of highlighting the problems ahead.The effect of the concentration of wealth that has occurred has yet to be felt. We should also remember the GDP is a rather worthless gauge of economic growth considering it includes things such as non-productive government spending. It is difficult to argue the economic effect and the kind of growth flowing from the soaring debt after the Covid nightmare has been fully felt but easy to argue little good will come from it. Of course, this only fueled a surge in the concentration in wealth and inequality that started long ago. Note the CEO-to-worker compensation ratio in America and how it has exploded over the years.: 1965 : 20.4 — 1975 : 26.6 — 1985 : 50.5 — 1995 : 118.8 — 2005 : 318.4 — 2015 : 318.8 — 2021 : 389 All this has been make worse by hollowing out America’s middle-class by sending manufacturing jobs overseas.President-elect Donald Trump won the 2024 election in part because working-class voters continued their migration toward the America First populism. For over a decade I have railed against Amazon a company with strong links to the government helping to destroy small businesses and communities. Still, this is a company many Americans continue to support, this proves we the masses are not as smart as we like to pretend. The task facing Donald Trump is fraught with peril. More By This Author:Demystifying Macroeconomic Events Is ChallengingTariffs Are A Way Of Putting A Finger On The ScaleThe Fed And Its Muddy Path Forward
Economic Feast Or Famine Ahead? Opinions Vary
