E Swans Neither Black Nor White

I bought SGBK (SGBK) for my IRA at $30.23/sh. Reader LM commented:
“Your Stonegate Bank obviously will be well positioned to offer real estate finance for those Florida Cubans who want to get in on the ground floor (literally) via their relatives.”

Russell Jones, an Australian economist at London’s Llewellyn.consulting.com argues that we should go back to Swan Diagrams, invented by an Australian economist and central banker. Swans diagrams could replace or complement the investment-savings/liquidity preference-money supply targets favored by economists today. Jones writes:

“Debate over macroeconomic policy should not be confined to the actions of central banks. “Notwithstanding the increasing hegemony of inflation-targeting regimes over the past 30 years, stabilisation policy should aim beyond relative price stability.

“In an ideal world, the ultimate objective of policymakers should be to maintain an economy in broad balance, externally and internally.

“An ingenious depiction of the issues involved in concurrently achieving internal and external balance was pioneered in the 1950s by Australian Trevor Swan, in the ‘Swan diagram’. ‘Swan diagrams’ formed a core of the undergraduate economics syllabus in the 1960s-70s. They have since been supplanted by often more sophisticated, though less user-friendly, diagnostic tools.

“A Swan diagram enables [one] simultaneously to assess an economy’s progress towards both over-riding objectives of macro policy: achiev[ing] full employment and relative price stability (internal balance), and balance on the current account (external balance). [It is done] using two macroeconomic instruments: the real exchange rate, and manipula[ting] real domestic spending through monetary and fiscal action.

“Only by employing both instruments in appropriate direction and degree, can policymakers achieve both internal and external balance. Policymakers also have to grapple with uncertain leads and lags, unavoidable data shortcomings and revisions, and political practicalities [that] can dilute or distort policy.

“An economy actually achieving overall macroeconomic balance is very rare. Nevertheless, Swan analysis provides a useful approximation of the policy mix a country should adopt towards this end, while offering an early warning when economic strategy is veering dangerously off course.” (Reprinted with permission.)

More follows from Finland, India, Britain, Mauritius, Belgium, Israel, Ireland, Spain, Canada, Papua New Guinea, and Congo Brazzaville including a quarterly report.

*Delek Group (DGRLY) beat its target for delivery of Q1 results of Thursday by one day. Net income at NIS 210 mn, followed a prior year net loss of NIS 195 mn. A similar reversal, from negative NIS 397 mn to positive 137 mn in the first quarter was shown in operating profits. Revenues rose 10% to NIS 5.5 bn over Q1 last year.

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