This past week five out of the seven instruments we follow hit their targets.
The SPX traded within our focus area of 2700 – 2740, hitting both levels several times but, ultimately, was unable to break out of this congestion zone. As a reminder, the index spent three weeks in May in that zone.
The projected trading range for next week for the SPX is 2660 – 2780, and the focus remains on 2700 – 2740:
With the first half of the year behind us, it is time to look at the bigger picture.
So far 2018 has been negatively correlated with the seasonal and the decennial cycle.
Looking at monthly seasonal data, the weakest part of the year is ahead of us.
While looking at the best fit with the previous 125 years, the outlook is mildly positive:
Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal
The projected trading range for the second half of 2018 for the SPX is 2550 – 2870:
You can keep track of our daily and intraday market updates here.
Oil has a $80 price target, and a 55 – 85 projected trading range for next week:
Gold shows strong support at 1248, and a 1230 – 1275 trading range for next week. Our long-term short target for gold is 950:
EURUSD has found strong support between 1.15 and 1.155 and traded to within a few pips of our upside and downside targets, generating another buy signal.
The projected trading range for next week for EURUSD is 1.148 – 1.173:
The Pound reached our down-side target as well and bounced off sharply, generating a buy signal.
The projected trading range for next week for GBPUSD is 1.29 – 1.33:
USDCHF reached our upside target and reversed sharply.
The projected trading range for next week for USDCHF is 0.985 – 1.004:
USDJPY came to within a few pips of our upside target and remains on a buy signal.
The projected trading range for next week for USDJPY is 109.2– 111.6:
USDCAD finished the week a few pips below our downside target and remains on a sell signal.
