E Mid Cap Report

 

The best scoring mid caps from one year ago (1/10/2013) averaged 551 bps of excess over the S&P 400, with 0% turnover.  The top performers included NFLX up 270%, ILMN up 102%, ACXM up 96%, HBI up 94%, MAN up 92%, and GMCR up 91%.


 


 

  • Consumer goods is the top scoring mid cap sector.
  • Restaurants are the top scoring mid cap industry.

The average mid cap score is 68.63 this week, below the four week moving average score of 70.84.  The average mid cap is trading 5.87% above its 200 dma, has 6.9 days to cover short and is expected to see EPS growth of 14.5% next year.
 
The best scoring mid cap sector is consumer goods.  Industrial goods and healthcare also score above average.  Services score in line.  Technology, basics, financials, and utilities score below average.
  
 

MID CAP       1/9/2014 4 Week MA
Company Name Symbol Sector INDUSTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST          
Verisign VRSN TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 110 108.75
Conseco Inc CNO FINANCIALS ACCIDENT & HEALTH INSURANCE 105 100
Hasbro Inc HAS CONSUMER GOODS TOYS & GAMES 105 103.75
Heartland Express HTLD SERVICES TRUCKING 105 100
Int’l Rectifier IRF TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 105 103.75
Omnicare OCR SERVICES DRUG STORES 105 108.75
Phillips van Heusen PVH CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 105 98.75
Actavis ACT HEALTHCARE DRUGS-GENERIC 100 93.75
Dillard’s Inc. DDS SERVICES DEPARTMENT STORES 100 102.5
Jack Henry JKHY TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 100 93.75
Skechers USA SKX CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 100 90
Tractor Supply Co. TSCO SERVICES SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER 100 100
Toro Corp TTC INDUSTRIAL GOODS SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES 100 100
Alexion Pharma ALXN HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 95 97.5
Arris Group ARRS TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 95 98.75
Brocade Communications Systems BRCD TECHNOLOGY DATA STORAGE DEVICES 95 86.25
Borg Warner BWA CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 95 97.5
Cheesecake Factory Inc  CAKE SERVICES RESTAURANTS 95 96.25
Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH SERVICES LODGING 95 97.5
Core Lab CLB BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 95 92.5
Commercial Metals Co CMC BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 95 96.25
Columbia Sportswear COLM CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 95 95
Carpenter Technology Corp. CRS BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 95 96.25
Carlisle Co’s CSL CONSUMER GOODS RUBBER & PLASTICS 95 97.5
Curtiss-Wright Corp. CW INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 98.75
I T T Educational ESI SERVICES EDUCATION & TRAINING SERV 95 85
Federal Mogul Corp FDML CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 95 90
Footlocker FL SERVICES APPAREL STORES 95 90
Hanesbrands Inc HBI CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 95 88.75
Helmrich & Payne Inc HP BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 95 98.75
Hormel Foods HRL CONSUMER GOODS MEAT PRODUCTS 95 91.25
Illumina ILMN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 95 98.75
Lennar Corp  LEN INDUSTRIAL GOODS RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 95 95
L S I Logic LSI TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 95 91.25
Manitowoc Company Inc MTW INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 95 97.5
NetEase NTES TECHNOLOGY INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER 95 91.25
NVR Inc NVR INDUSTRIAL GOODS RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 95 91.25
Open Text OTEX TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 95 98.75
Polaris Industries Partners PII CONSUMER GOODS RECREATIONAL VEHICLES 95 96.25
Qlogic QLGC TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 95 77.5
Stifel Fin’l SF FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 95 98.75
Transdigm Group Inc. TDG INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 95 95
Terex Corp TEX INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 95 98.75
Tempur Pedic TPX CONSUMER GOODS HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES 95 93.75
Triquint Semi TQNT TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 95 88.75
Tupperware Brands TUP CONSUMER GOODS PACKAGING & CONTAINERS 95 96.25
Universal Health UHS HEALTHCARE HOSPITALS 95 87.5
Wolverine World Wide WWW CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 95 97.5
           
WORST          
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc BMRN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 20 42.5
Amedisys Inc AMED HEALTHCARE HOME HEALTH CARE 25 32.5
Biomed Realty Trust BMR FINANCIALS REITS 25 30
Harmony Gold Mining HMY BASIC MATERIALS GOLD 25 26.25
Radio Shack RSH SERVICES ELECTRONICS STORES 25 26.25

 

 


 

Commentary:

Restaurants (CAKE, WEN, EAT) are the top scoring industry across mid cap.   The Nat’l Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index hit a 5-month high in November.  Same store sales grew at 57% of respondents, up from 54% in October.  47% reported foot-traffic growth, up from 43% in October.  The ability to expand labels across indications and the industry focus on high margin orphan drugs support drug makers (ALXN, VRX, UTHR).  Look for commercial construction to increase in 2014, supporting profits for related machinery (TEX, MTW).  Small tool (SNA, SSD) demand benefits from industrial production growth.  Winter weather supports Toro (TTC).  The industry seasonal inventory build supports electronics wholesalers (AVT, ARW, WCC).

Steel & iron (CRS, CMC, STLD, HSC), major chemicals (ASH, FMC), and drillers (HP, PTEN, OII) score best in basic materials.  Watch industrial production in Europe as improvement is likely under-modeled.  Lower cotton prices and solid apparel retail sales support textiles (PVH, SKX, WWW, HBI, COLM, DECK, UA) plays.  The U.S. auto recovery has driven auto suppliers (FDML, BWA, TEN, GNTX) so far; however Europe may take the baton in 2014.  In financials, buy investment brokers (SF, LM, GHL) and asset managers (AMG, LAZ).  Drug makers, hospitals (UHS, LPNT), and medical instruments (NUVA, PKI, HRC) score highest in healthcare.  The top industrials baskets are farm & construction machinery, small tools, and residential construction (NVR, LEN, TOL, DHI).  Residential construction has been weighed down over worries rising rates would derail recovery.  However managers are beginning to re-evaluate based on job growth and consumers ability to adjust to rates in the face of a predictable taper.  Price to book has become more attractive as plays have consolidated moves.  In services, focus on restaurants, wholesale electronics, and trucking (HTLD, KNX).  The top technology groups are semi IC (IRF, TQNT, SWKS), broadline semi (ATML, CAVM) and Internet software (VRSN, OTEX, SINA).  

MID CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR   1/9/2014
Sector INDUSTRY SCORE
     
BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 83.00
BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 78.33
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 75.00
BASIC MATERIALS SPECIALTY CHEMICALS 70.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 60.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 60.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING 60.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS 56.67
CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 83.00
CONSUMER GOODS BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 75.00
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 72.50
CONSUMER GOODS HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES 72.50
CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 70.00
CONSUMER GOODS PACKAGING & CONTAINERS 69.29
CONSUMER GOODS PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS 65.00
CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 63.33
FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 82.50
FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 74.00
FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 66.43
FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 62.50
FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 60.00
FINANCIALS REITS 57.83
HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 88.33
HEALTHCARE HOSPITALS 72.00
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 70.83
HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES 62.50
HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 61.25
INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 88.33
INDUSTRIAL GOODS SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES 88.33
INDUSTRIAL GOODS RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 84.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 79.44
INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 64.17
INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 62.50
INDUSTRIAL GOODS WASTE MANAGEMENT 60.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL BUILDING MATERIALS 56.67
SERVICES RESTAURANTS 90.00
SERVICES ELECTRONICS WHOLESALE 86.25
SERVICES TRUCKING 81.67
SERVICES ADVERTISING AGENCIES 77.50
SERVICES SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER 75.00
SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 70.00
SERVICES EDUCATION & TRAINING SERV 69.00
SERVICES BROADCASTING 65.00
SERVICES APPAREL STORES 64.38
SERVICES MOVIE PRODUCTION, THEATERS 63.33
SERVICES PUBLISHING-NEWSPAPERS 62.50
SERVICES AUTO DEALERSHIPS 61.67
SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 55.00
SERVICES PERSONAL SERVICES 48.33
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 80.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-BROAD LINE 80.00
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 78.75
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 76.67
TECHNOLOGY TECHNICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE 72.00
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 71.00
TECHNOLOGY COMPUTER PERIPHERALS 65.00
TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION & DELIVERY SERVICES 65.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 65.00
TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 62.00
TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 58.75
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS 57.50
TECHNOLOGY PRINTED CIRCUIT BOARDS 41.67
UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 61.67
UTILITIES GAS UTILITIES 51.67

 

 

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