Monday Market Commentary – November 14, 2016
Stocks – Last week after the election results came out the Dow Jones Industrial Average index has reached a new intraday high of 18,873.66. The SP500 and Nasdaq have yet to rise to rise new highs with the Dow. Internal broad market indicators are weak suggesting at least consolidation first if a continued broad market advance will continue, or the stock market is setting up for a sell-off. The forecast is neutral for now until more price action can determine a low-risk high-reward market entry either long or short. Current forecast bias is for the downside until more price action can be analyzed.
Bonds – As previously forecasted, the 30 Year US T-Bond has been selling off since July 08 of this year, with it selling off through major support of the 160 to 161 area last week. Long-term the forecast is down. Near-term short-term after this severe sell-off, look for consolidation to a upward bounce back in the coming days and possibly weeks to initiate new short positions. Long-term the forecast is for prices to very possibly hit the 128 area.
US Dollar Index – No change. The USD index is forecasted to head to 100.51 or higher with 95.885 as major support. If 95.885 breaks support, then this upward forecast is canceled. Conversely the EURUSD is forecasted to go to 1.0450 and possibly lower.
Gold – Gold has now broken near-term support of 1,242.65 with 1,375.53 as current resistance. Watch the 1,200 price area for buying support now. If 1,200 price area breaks support, the potential is much stronger for gold very possibly heading all the way back down to the 1,000 price area again. If 1,200 does hold support, higher gold prices of 1,434 to 1,500 is still possible but at this point is not forecasted yet. Forecast bias is for the downside with a possible sell-stop entry order at 1,209.79. There could be a snap back rally off the 1,200 support area so watch carefully the price action, and set your stop-loss accordingly for your risk appetite if your position goes against you.
