Dr. Yellen’s First Test

It has been a year since Janet Yellen took over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a position widely regarded as one of the most powerful and influential in all the world. It was a remarkably calm first year for Dr. Yellen, which stands in stark contrast to the experience of her predecessors. In fact, each of the last five Federal Reserve Chairman were tested with some type of political, economic or financial market turmoil not long after assuming the role.

Let’s take a look back at history.

test1 Arthur Burns took over as Federal Reserve Chairman in February 1970. The U.S. economy had just slipped into an 11-month recession and was in the midst of a Bear Market that would shave off 37% of the value in U.S. equities by May 1970. In his early years, Burns pursued an easy monetary policy stance but was soon faced with a significant inflationary threat (1973 oil crisis) that required a tightening of policy. By the end of 1974, inflation was running at over 12% and during Burns’ tenure the consumer price index increased at an average  rate of 9% per year.

G G. William Miller assumed the Federal Reserve chairmanship in March 1978. He inherited an economy suffering from high inflation and took office as the stock market was in the midst of a Bear Market that had begun in 1976. Miller wanted to pursue a dovish policy as he took the view that inflation was not too high and would be self-correcting. However, his fellow governors did not share this view, and he was outvoted as they chose to raise the discount rate. Miller was blamed for a sharp decline in the dollar during his term and was criticized for his unwillingness to fight inflation. His tenure would be short-lived, lasting less than two years.

test3 Paul Volcker became the next fed chairman in August 1979. Faced with the highest inflation rate the country had ever seen, Volcker hiked interest rates to over 20% in an attempt to end the period of stagflation that had plagued the 1970’s. Within a year of assuming the chairmanship, the U.S. entered the first leg of a “double-dip” recession. A second deeper leg of the “double-dip” recession accompanied by a Bear Market would start in 1981. By 1983, though, the economy was growing again and the inflation rate had moved all the way down to 3%. Volcker’s actions were widely credited with ending the stagflationary era.

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