Dollar Slips, While Bond Market Rally Continues

The dollar is trading a little below levels seen in late North American session yesterday, but that is after it initially extended its gains in Asia.  The news stream is light, and unlike yesterday, there is no US economic data outside of the MBA’s mortgage application report. 

Despite the minor dollar setback today, the uptrend remains intact. There still is a strong bias toward buying dollar dips.  The euro has not been able to move back into last week’s ranges.  At the end of last week, it made a low of $1.3221, according to Bloomberg.  Sterling broke below $1.66 on August 21 and attempts to resurface it have been stymied for the past several sessions.  Against the yen, the dollar rose to almost JPY104.20 at the end of last week and continues to knock against it now.  Support is pegged in the JPY103.50-75 area. 

The dollar-bloc is faring a bit better.  The US dollar has been probing resistance near CAD1.10 over the last several sessions, and it reversed lower yesterday.  Today the greenback has been pushed below CAD1.09 for the first time in five sessions.  Canada reports Q2 GDP at the end of the week, and the consensus expectation appears to have crept up to 2.7% after a 1.2% pace in Q1.   The Bank of Canada meets on September 3.  Its rhetoric is expected to recognize the reduction of the downside risks of inflation and the better growth domestically as well as its dominant trading partner. 

The Australian dollar  is trading in narrow ranges, but firmly so.  Dips below $0.9300 have been bought in recent days.  Last week it was turned back from its 100-day moving average, but approaching it again (~$0.9342).   

Here in August, there are only three major currencies that have gained against the dollar.  The Norwegian krone is the strongest, up 1.8%.  It has been bolstered by economic data that has squashed any lingering ideas that the Norges Bank needs to cut interest rates.  The other two currencies that have appreciated are the Australian dollar (0.4%) and now the Canadian dollar (0.1%). 

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