The US dollar is mostly lower as liquidity thins, and soft economic data kept the bulls penned.  The soft ADP estimate and weaker than expected manufacturing ISM offset the heightened rhetoric about Greece’s 460 mln euro payment due to the IMF next week. Â
The ADP estimate need not mean a poor national figure.  Even with a small upward revision to its February estimate, at 214k, it still sorely underestimated the government’s figure of 288k private sector jobs.  The ADP provides a good guide to the general pattern of private sector job growth but on a month to month basis, there are periods of significant gaps.  Â
Separately, we note the strength of US auto sales. March sales accelerated to a 17.05 mln unit pace, which was above expectations and the highest since last November, which itself was the second highest since the crisis. It snaps a three month declining streak and points to a recovery in retail sales.  Still, the bottom line is that growth sputtered in Q1 15, similar but not as poor as Q1 14. Like others, including the Federal Reserve, we expected some of the headwinds to prove transitory, like the weather and the labor dispute at the West Coast ports. We recognize that strong consumption in Q4 14 may have also encouraged some retrenchment in consumption over the last few months. The continued job creation and the increase in savings will likely help fuel household consumption. Â
Today’s data includes weekly initial jobless claims, which are overshadowed by tomorrow’s national figures.  The trade balance may be of greater interest, especially in of the focus on how the dollar’s strength is dampening net exports.  The consensus is for little change in the deficit from the January shortfall of $41.8 bln.   Yellen speaks a few minutes after the data, and her comments pose some additional headline risk. Â
