DOW – 51 = 17,801
SPX – 0.49 = 2059
NAS + 25 = 4766
10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22%
OIL + .80 = 63.85
GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00
SILV + .73 = 17.21
We’ll start with economic news.
The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening.
The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher.
The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While stocks have soared and GDP and employment figures have returned to pre-recession highs, small business has lagged in the recovery. But that’s changing. Small businesses added more than 100,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, accounting for almost half of the total gains in the private sector.
So the economic news in the US was pretty good today. No reason for a market selloff, but that’s how the morning started, with a 200 point decline on the Dow. Crude oil prices bounced a little higher but nothing outside the norm. Sure the Federal Reserve could put the brakes on a Santa Claus rally; the Fed FOMC meets next week, and they might make minor changes to their language to indicate a willingness to raise rates next year, or Fed policymakers might drop their assurance that short-term interest rates will stay near zero for a “considerable time†and replace it by saying they’ll be patient before moving rates. What’s the difference between “considerable time†and “patience� Who knows?
And don’t forget that politicians in Washington could always throw a monkey wrench in the works. They’ve done it before. Congressional negotiators were nearing a deal on massive spending legislation that would avert a government shutdown and bring the 113th Congress to a close, but they can’t resist the temptation to add on bits of legislation not directly related to the spending bill. A vote is expected by Thursday. And even if the bill makes it out of the House, the Senate could take up and pass the spending bill shortly after it leaves the House, but only if all senators agree. And this might shock you but it doesn’t look like all senators are in agreement on the bill; which could mean a push for further debate, forcing a continuing resolution and pushing the matter into next week when most of the politicians are planning a trip home for the holidays.
