Disruption Of Confidence

Short-Term Sell Signal Deepens

As noted last week:

“The weakness in the market previously, combined with the threats between the U.S. and North Korea, led to a fairly sharp unwinding in equities on Thursday which in turn triggered a short-term sell signal.

That sell-off has remained confined to the current bullish trend line but has threatened to violate the 50-dma. If the market is unable to regain the 50-dma on Monday, and remain above it for the balance of the coming week, the most likely move in the markets will be lower.“

I have updated the chart above through Friday afternoon. I followed that analysis up on Tuesday stating:

“On Monday, the market surged out of the gate as headlines suggested ‘geopolitical risk’ had subsided. I find this particular explanation hard to digest, given the rising rhetoric of a potential trade war with China, violence in Charlottesville over the weekend, no resolution with North Korea, etc., so forth, and so on. I find little evidence of a global turn in geopolitical stresses currently.

Monday’s ‘buy the dip’ frenzy was no different. The question will be whether the market can both reverse the short-term ‘sell signal’ and climb above the previous resistance of the old highs? Such a reversal would end the current consolidation process and allow for additional capital to be invested.”

That was so last Tuesday…

The reversal, at least to this point, was not to be the case.

Exactly one week after last week’s sell off, the market dumped again. This time it was the news of the complete dismemberment of President Trump’s “economic council” of CEO’s along with the rumor that Gary Cohn would be exiting his position at the White House as well. While the latter turned out to be #FakeNews, the damage had already been done as market participants began to question the ability of the Administration to get its promised legislative action advanced.

Given the run up in the markets since the election, which was based on tax cuts/reform, infrastructure spending, repatriation and repeal of the Affordable Care Act, the lack of progress on that agenda has left the markets pushing higher on “hope”and “promises.” The disbanding of the economic council has led to some disruption of that confidence.