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Global stocks started the week stronger ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings release. South Korean markets jumped more than 2% on Monday, the biggest daily gain in two months, as Samsung Electronics rose 6% on promises to buy back shares. Chinese equities started the week on a positive note, with the CSI300 blue-chip index advancing over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index also climbing over 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also rose. China’s yuan was steady on Monday as the dollar’s rally took a breather, while the central bank renewed its support through market guidance and signs of economic recovery helped rein in the currency’s fall. In Japan, the central bank governor’s speech provided no clarity on the country’s rate outlook.The Bank of Japan governor reiterated that the central bank will raise rates if economic and price developments align with forecasts but did not mention a potential December hike. The Japanese yen has fallen around 7% since October against a resurgent dollar, reaching past 156 per dollar for the first time since July, raising concerns about potential intervention from Japanese authorities. After Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish turn last week, futures suggest a 62% likelihood the Federal Reserve will cut next month. At least seven Fed officials will speak this week, and dealers expect moderate cuts. If Trump picks a Treasury Secretary who supports tariffs and debt-funded tax cuts, it could affect his policies. The NY Times stated that Trump is considering former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, millionaire Marc Rowan, Scott Bessent, and Howard Lutnick, Elon Musk’s chosen candidate.On the macro front Global flash PMIs on Friday and the UK, Japan, and Canadian inflation reports are the main economic indications for the week. The week’s data highlight will be the flash November PMIs, which are due on Friday and offer a health check on the global economy. According to data from October, the manufacturing indexes in the majority of important economies stayed below 50. With October prints due in the UK on Wednesday, Japan on Thursday, and Canada on Tuesday, inflation will also be a major focus. As energy prices rise, the UK’s headline CPI and RPI are predicted to rise, while the core and services CPIs are predicted to fall. Core inflation excluding fresh food is expected to be 2.1% YoY in Japan, while core-core inflation excluding fresh food and energy is expected to be 2.2%.From the European Central Bank (ECB), President Lagarde and other ECB officials have a long list of scheduled appearances. Other notable data releases include consumer confidence and retail sales figures in the UK on Friday. In Japan, economic data due include private core machinery orders on Monday and the trade balance on Wednesday. The G20 Leaders’ Summit kicks off in Rio de Janeiro today, however, given President Elect Trump’s absence not much is expected to be gleaned from that meeting. The AI bellwether Nvidia, the largest stock in the world by market capitalisation ($3.6 trillion), will release its most significant corporate earnings report on Wednesday. US retailers, such as Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, and TJX, will provide an update on the status of US consumers. Palo Alto Networks and Deere are two other noteworthy US names for next week. XPeng and Baidu from China also report.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
CFTC Data As Of 15/11/24
Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5960
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EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0650
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GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750
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USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 154
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XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2600
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BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 85000
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