Current Market Snapshot

European indexes were in rally mode before the US markets opened, and the EURO STOXX 50 subsequently logged a 1.36% Tuesday gain. The 8:30 AM Trade Balance data came in much better than expected, with will be a positive for Q4 GDP. With this positive prelude, the S&P 500 opened near its 0.11% intraday low and rallied to its 0.73% intraday high a little over an hour later. The index remained relatively range bound through the rest of the day but easily snapped its three-day losing streak with its first gain of the year, a respectable 0.61%.

This week’s potential market movers will be tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s December jobs report. The Fed minutes are unlikely to hold any major surprises since the initial taper plans have already been announced. Thus the moderately dovish San Francisco Fed President, John Williams (a non-voting member, didn’t trigger any market reaction to his forecast today that taper would end this year. On the other hand, The December jobs report could produce some volatility if it disappoints. A Reuters survey of economists puts the expectation at 196K new jobs, which would surpass the 2013 average of 188.5K for the first 11 months of the year. Tomorrow we’ll get some additional expectation-setting with the release of the ADP Private Employment report and TrimTabs data on US salaried employees.

According to the U.S. Treasury, the yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.96%, down 2 bps from Friday and 8 bps below its interim high at the end of 2013.

Here is a 15-minute look at the first four days of 2014.

 

 

Volume was 7% above its 50-day moving average.

 

 

The S&P 500 is now down 0.57% for 2014.

Here is a longer perspective, starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

 

 

 

 

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.