(Click on image to enlarge)
The lead chart shows the monthly average of from the Department of Labor and those unemployed 27 weeks or longer from the BLS.Initial Claims
Continued Claims
Insured UnemploymentThe key phrase above is “insured unemployment”.After someone expires all of their unemployment benefits they become “uninsured unemployment” and the Department of Labor stops tracking.Expiring Unemployment Benefits
Insured unemployment generally ends at 26 weeks. To correct for expiring benefits, we need add those with expired benefits to the number of continuing claims.
Continued Claims and 27+ Weeks Unemployed Detail(Click on image to enlarge)
Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs OverstatementOn November 20, I commented
My prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million. My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.
The BLS Birth-Death model is seriously messed up an/or the BLS is oversampling large corporations and under sampling small businesses.
The BLS monthly nonfarm payroll reports are consistent garbage.
Reflections on BEA RevisionsIf jobs are overstated, income is too. And on Wednesday we found out the BEA overstated wages by a massive $91.8 billion from $156.8 billion to $65.0 billion.Please note the
The BEA commented “With the incorporation of these new QCEW data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points from the previously published 3.4 percent estimate.”
I commented “The BEA hugely revised GDI to the downside. Hmm. It seems that voters weren’t fooled.”
Click on the above link for more details and charts.Small Business Employment in PicturesFinally, please consider
Small businesses with employees 1-49 are struggling in 2024. Large businesses are booming [but for how long]?
Inflationary or Recessionary?There are a huge number of factors in play depending on what Trump does with tariffs, what Trump does with deportations, how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate, and how much the Fed reacts to Trump’s jawboning.Tariffs and deportations are simultaneously inflationary and recessionary depending on the time frame and how fast Trump does or doesn’t do what he has pledged to do.Neither Trump nor the Fed is in a good position, especially with .More By This Author:Understanding The Anger Over Healthcare In One Picture Hotel Costs Jump 3.7 Percent In November, What’s Going On? The CPI Rises 0.3 Percent in November, Rate Cut Odds Jump Anyway
