There continues to be significant variance between the seasonally adjusted construction spending versus the unadjusted data – however, both data sets agree this sector is growing and have almost the same year-over-year growth. Â Public construction continues to contract.
The backward revision this month was generally moderate and down. The 3 month rolling average of year-over-year growth is accelerating.Â
Econintersect analysis:
- Growth decelerated 0.8% month-over-month and Up 8.5% year-over-year.
- Inflation adjusted construction spending up 7.7% year-over-year.
- 3 month rolling average is 4.9% above the rolling average one year ago.
Unadjusted Construction Spending – Three Month Rolling Average Compared to the Rolling Average One Year Ago
US Census Analysis:
- Up 0.1% month-over-month and Up 8.7% year-over-year
- Market expected -0.5% to 0.9% month-over-month (consensus +0.1) versus the +0.1% reported
Construction spending (unadjusted data) was declining year-over-year for 48 straight months until November 2011. That was almost four years of headwinds for GDP. Construction spending is now in the fourteenth month of year-over-year spending expansion (unadjusted data), and the average rate of growth in the last 12 months has been around 5% – and this month the growth is near that percentage.
Indexed and Seasonally Adjusted Total Construction Spending (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)
This month’s headline statement from US Census:
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during February 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $945.7 billion, 0.1 percent (±1.3%)* above the revised January estimate of $944.6 billion. The February figure is 8.7 percent (±1.6%) above the February 2013 estimate of $869.9 billion. During the first 2 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $128.0 billion, 8.9 percent (±1.6%) above the $117.5 billion for the same period in 2013.
PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION – Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $680.0 billion, 0.1 percent (±1.0%)* above the revised January estimate of $679.1 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $360.4 billion in February, 0.8 percent (±1.3%)* below the revised January estimate of $363.2 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $319.6 billion in February, 1.2 percent (±1.0%) above the revised January estimate of $315.8 billion.
PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION – In February, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $265.7 billion, 0.1 percent (±2.1%)* above the revised January estimate of $265.5 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $59.5 billion, 1.2 percent (±4.9%)* below the revised January estimate of $60.2 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $85.6 billion, 1.4 percent (±5.4%)* above the revised January estimate of $84.5 billion.
