China: Manufacturing Contraction Continues

Econintersect:  For the third month in a row the HSBC Manufacturing PMI(Purchasing Managers’ Index) for China is showing a contracting manufacturing sector.  The Flash (preliminary) reading is 48.1 for March 2014, down from 48.5 for February.  Readings below 50 correspond to negative growth.  A rebound had been expected following what was thought to have been a slower February due to the Chinese New Year celebration.  For the first time in four months export orders increased but two other key components, output and new orders, weakened further.

Highlights:

  • Manufacturing PMITM drops further below 50;  adds to evidence of GDP slowdown in Q1
  • Falling orders point to ongoing weak domestic demand, but relief as exports return to growth
  • Government’s 7.5% 2014 growth target at risk
  • Input prices and output charges fall sharply

Chris Williams, Chief Ecionomist for Markit, described the latest data thusly:

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