The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) year-over-year rate of home price growth grew from 5.7 % to 5.8%. The index authors stated “Consumers, through home buying and other spending, are the driving force in the current economic expansion.”
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Analyst Opinion of Case-Shiller HPI
Many pundits believe home prices are back in a bubble. Maybe, but the falling inventory of homes for sale keeps home prices relatively high. I continue to see this a situation of supply and demand. It is the affordability of the homes which is becoming an issue for the lower segments of consumers. It should be noted that the rate of year-over-year increased peaked in February 2017 at 5.9 %, and has declined every month since until this month and is currently at 5.82 %.
- 20 city unadjusted home price rate of growth grew 0.2 % month-over-month. [Econintersect uses the change in year-over-year growth from month-to-month to calculate the change in rate of growth]
- Note that Case-Shiller index is an average of the last three months of data.
- The market expected:
| Â | Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual |
| 20-city, SA – M/M | 0.1 % to 0.4 % | 0.4 % | +0.3 % |
| 20-city, NSA – M/M | Â | Â | +0.7 % |
| 20-city, NSA – Yr/Yr | 5.8 % to 5.9 % | 5.9 % | +5.8 % |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Year-over-Year Change
Comparing all the home price indices, it needs to be understood each of the indices uses a unique methodology in compiling their index – and no index is perfect.
The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change. Here home price growth generally appears to be stabilize (rate of growth not rising or falling).
There are some differences between the indices on the rate of “recovery” of home prices.
