Can The Ukrainian Cavalry Save The Day?

 

Russia will run down the clock on the Ukraine’s fuel supplies and then continue to escalate pro-Russian militia activity in the Russian enclaves of eastern Ukraine.  I discussed this winning strategy in a post a few weeks ago. 

Ukraine is trying to counter by mobilizing armed forces to launch a “full-scale anti-terrorist operation” against pro-Russian separatists.  Given the Mad Max conditions perhaps the Ukrainians can muster up some 19th century cavalry units or Mad Max type guerrilla street fighters in lieu of the fuel-guzzling motorized vehicles actually needed to go up against Russians.  A Ukrainian counter move will be dead on arrival, and I suspect Ukrainian units will pay a heavy price.  Ukraine is now calling on Europe to deliver natural gas and fuel, which Europe in turn gets from Russia, further complicating the chess board and stretching lines of communication.

I don’t expect a serious Russian military incursion in eastern Ukraine. It’s not necessary as Ukrainian soldiers are handing over their weapons at pro-Russian checkpoints. The police are refusing to follow orders from Kiev. There is a rumor that Crimean Cassocks are headed to the Russian enclaves in support of the separatists.

One deadly option for the desperate US CIA backed knuckleheads in Kiev to try are attacks on Russian minorities in Moldavia, or western Ukraine. Unlike in eastern Ukraine, the Russians are true minorities in these locales.  Neo-Nazi goons might try to send them packing,  or worse. If atrocities and killings are committed, it would create a new dimension for Putin to deal with and would be a dramatic and dangerous escalation. It would also be a marker as to whether the new cold war extremist cabal in Washington has gotten the upper hand in foreign policy.

The tension buildup between Russia and the West over Ukraine puts nearly three quarters of the palladium supply of South Africa and Russia at risk of some form of disruption. Russia has no excess inventory anyway, and mined supply is headed for China and Japan. Japan’s dependence on Russian platinum group metals and oil has resulted in only token sanctions against Russia. In fact, Japan is so economically vulnerable to Russian supply cutoff that its whole paper-tiger economy would collapse. China might be pushing for that as a quid pro quo for greater Russian support.